?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Выборы и политика во всем мире

Previous Entry Share Flag Next Entry
Belarusian election data
Ritvars
ritvars wrote in world_elections
Observed elections in Belarus. Regretfully, there are (and will be) no official results by polling stations on the internet. Therefore, I'd like to share data I got.
First, breakdown of votes by boxes in the polling station #21 of the Central district of Minsk where I was present at counting.
Early voting At home At polling station Total
Haidukevich 4 0 13 17
Karatkevich 16 8 75 99
Lukashenka 103 23 184 310
Ulakhovich 2 1 4 7
Against all 38 4 31 73
Invalid ballots 0 3 1 4
Total 163 39 308 510
Second, I observed approving of district-level results of the Central district. The chairman of the district commission announced orally some numbers for each polling station, and I took notes. Please see the Excel file. Sum of polling stations slightly differs from the official district minutes so few minor errors must be present (the chairman misspeaking, me mishearing or miswriting). I'd advice to cross-check my data against minutes of polling stations where possible and compare to polling stations in other city districts. Description of precinct boundaries available here.
EDIT. Clarification: blank cells in the Excel file are missing data, not zeroes; in some cases, missing data influence percentages.


  • 1
You were present at counting but you are positive that these were the actual results? Also what was the turnout?

BTW, the turnout and the percentages for the candidates in the spreadsheet are priceless! I wish they published them! I really want to publish them in my blog but people may say: well, how we know that these are the actual results?

1. These are numbers that were announced at the official meeting of the district commission.
2. They correspond to the official district results.
3. They correspond to #21 numbers I saw at the polling station.
4. Here is a photo of #25 minutes.
5. Perhaps, it's possible to dig more minutes and check.

Edited at 2015-10-14 05:24 pm (UTC)

I am more curious about the polling station #21. On the election day the turnout at polling station was 44.4%, which is exactly the same turnout as on the polling station #20! There are several more polling stations there with pretty much exactly the same turnout 44% or 45%. There is no way these numbers can be real.

Well, conduct of voting at #21 was exemplary. Independent domestic observers told me there was no difference between their early voting count and the official. There were lots of international observers and journalists at the closing. We were allowed to observe the counting standing right behind backs of the commission members.
The counting was done with numerous breaches:
​​after invalidating unused ballots, the commission didn't count signatures of voters and proceeded to open boxes immediately;
in the early voting box, there were 163 ballots despite 144 voter signatures. The commission ignored that, retained 144 as number of early voters but took all 163 votes as valid. Signatures of early voters were not recounted on the occasion;
ballots were not consistently checked whether they are valid (if they have 2 signatures on their backside and single voting mark);
when counting candidate votes, ballots were not consistently checked if they have a voting mark for the respective candidate. For example, while counting Lukashenka's piles, some commission members only lifted and counted upper right corners of ballots. Lukashenka's voting marks are located in lower part of the ballot and were not visible even for commission members;
lights were turned off and observers politely driven away with no signed result minutes, no public copy of them, and no signed meeting minutes.
So I trust that early voting turnout was 144/735=19.6%.

For 26 polling stations out of 48 (closed stations are excluded) the share of preliminary voting is the same - 30% +-0,2%

Another evidence that numbers are mainly not from real ballot counting - Korotkevich is around 5% everywhere except for 4 stations where she is above 15%

На втором месте по итогам голосования в столице Татьяна Короткевич, за которую проголосовало 6,99% избирателей
https://news.mail.ru/politics/23598398

  • 1